According to a 2013 Oxford University Study, 47% of US workers are at risk of computerization. The study, conducted by the Oxford Martin Program, surveyed 700 jobs, to determine what “recent technological advances” mean for employment in the near future. “The poor performance of labor markets” the study says “has intensified the debate about technological unemployment among economists.” While there is ongoing “disagreement” regarding the driving forces behind unemployment rates, the study says, a number of scholars have “ pointed at computer controlled equipment as a possible explanation for recent jobless growth.” If that’s true, what does that mean for the future of jobs within the United States? Is A.I. (Artificial Intelligence) really replacing people?
What is A.I.?
The Oxford study is quite specific regarding its scope of research, when it refers to computerization or A.I. it’s speaking directly about Machine Learning and Mobile Robotics, and then categorises the 702 “occupations based on their susceptibility to computerization.” However, the definition of A.I. is somewhat broader than the scope of research conducted by Oxford University. In a world that has become increasingly connected and technologically savvy, A.I. refers to the “ science and engineering of making intelligent machines, especially intelligent computer programs, according to Stanford University. “It is related to the similar task of using computers to understand human intelligence, but AI does not have to confine itself to methods that are biologically observable.” Therefore, there has been an increasing fear that the growth of this form of intelligence can permanently replace workers, or even whole companies, whose mere existence relies on the use of technology and machines.
“Futurists and science-fiction writers have at times looked forward to machines’ workplaces takeover with a kind of giddy excitement,” wrote The Atlantic’s Derek Thompson in his piece looking at a world where workers have been completely replaced by machines. “Technology could exert a slow but continual downward pressure on the value and availability of work – that is, on wages and on the share of prime-age workers with full-time jobs,” he wrote but he also said that it could create a “new normal” where the “expectation” that work is a central part of a person’s life is likely to significantly dissipate.
According to report by Gensis, on the future of work and the workplace, A.I. will play a pivotal role in the future workplace and will be used as a tool to “undertake tasks of a scale and complexity that were once unimaginable”. People will still have jobs in the near future but the structure of these positions will change dramatically as most of the growth in jobs will occur in freelance high-value work.
AI In Construction and future industries
Recently Google DeepMind, a technological collaboration between the search giant and DeepMind, has been using data from online news articles to teach computers how to read. The project basically creates an “annotated database” for written language in order for the A.I. to interpret, and more importantly, look “beyond the mere occurrence of words and phrases” by looking also at their “grammatical links and causal relationships”. Teaching technology how to read could have serious implications for key industries, like oil and gas, manufacturing and construction. In fact, technological devices, such as the Drone Surveying Technology, BID and 3D printing technology, are already paving the way for a move towards technology-led production. What does this mean for the future of workers? Will they still play a role? The chances are, workers will still play a vital role in the running of a business, but the increasing power and development of A.I. could mean that some jobs will be replaced.
According to new research by Deloitte, automation and robotics will cause “a significant shift in the UK labour market in the next twenty years” with one-third of existing jobs at risk of being replaced. Despite this number, it doesn’t suggest that humans will be unconditionally replaced by machines, but it does suggest a change in how we conduct work with the help of A.I.
